The Bitcoin (BTC) daily chart has produced three consecutive red candles for the first time since the first week of November. This period coincided with Donald Trump’s US election victory, which led to a significant price increase in the cryptocurrency market.
Retesting the 50-Day EMA Level
Similar to the last time three or more red candles were observed on the daily chart, Bitcoin retested the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level. The 1-day chart below illustrates this trend:
Bitcoin 1-day chart
Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Correction is ‘Almost Done,’ Says Analyst
With BTC’s price dropping by more than 15% since its all-time high, Captain Faibik, an independent crypto trader, said that most of the drawdown is potentially over for the largest cryptocurrency. In an X post, the trader highlighted:
- "The massive bearish divergence between its price and relative strength index (RSI) over the past month."
- Such divergences are usually followed by an 8% to10% fall, which is considered a ‘healthy reset.’
Bitcoin 1-day analysis by Crypto Faibik
Source: X.com
Expectations for Price Movement
Captain Faibik expected the price to bounce from the $94,000 range. On the other hand, Cold Blooded Shiller, an anonymous crypto trader, predicted a deeper pullback for Bitcoin based on the same divergence pattern.
- "If a similar outcome unfolds, BTC’s sell-off may stretch down to as low as $85,000."
- This prediction is in contrast to Captain Faibik’s expectation of a bounce from the $94,000 range.
Futures Market Analysis
Byzantine General, a futures market analyst, highlighted incessant selling by spot holders. The analyst said:
- "We actually got a perp premium at the moment because spot is selling off so much it’s disconnecting from the derivatives market."
Coinbase Selling Activity
Maartunn, a CryptoQuant analyst, pointed out that this is the most significant Coinbase selling activity since Bitcoin was priced at $66,000. The selling pressure is ‘relentless,’ as the Coinbase premium fell to a quarterly low.
Bitcoin Coinbase premium gap chart by Maartunn
Source: X.com
Realized Losses Reach $28.9 Million
The volume of realized losses peaked above its weekly average due to increasing selling pressure by the hour. Axel Adler Jr, a Bitcoin onchain analyst, highlighted that:
- The BTC realized losses over the past 5 days reached $28.9 million, 320% above its weekly average in 2024.
- The 28 million mark has been crossed only 10 times this year.
Bitcoin realized loss chart by Axel Adler Jr
Source: X.com
Mid-Term Chart Analysis
Analyzing Bitcoin’s mid-term chart revealed a bearish break of structure (BOS). However, there is a clear invalidation for a reversal if Bitcoin continues to close a daily candle above $95,000.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
As observed in the chart, the 4-hour candle has established an immediate recovery above $95,000 after dropping to $92,777. For Bitcoin to nullify the bearish sentiment, a daily candle above $95,000 would be ideal.
Disclaimer
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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